While that seems true so far, Edwards faces a new challenge as the race assumes a national dimension in the next round of voting on Feb. 3 when seven states choose delegates. He’ll forsake the cozy, confessional gatherings of Iowa and New Hampshire for impersonal rallies, surrogate campaigners and loads of ad buys. Edwards has anxiously awaited this moment. Though he fought hard in New Hampshire, his sights seemed set on its aftermath, as he decamped several times to campaign and raise money elsewhere (in the week after the Iowa caucuses, Edwards collected about $1 million, $600,000 of which was gathered online). Now he’ll aim at what he considers more hospitable terrain: his native South Carolina, which he deems a must-win, and other states where he believes he can compete strongly, like Oklahoma, New Mexico and Missouri. Already, Edwards has defied the soothsayers by proving he’s a credible candidate. Now he must demonstrate that he can be a national one as well.
That will require adjusting to a new campaign dynamic. So far, Edwards has garnered rave reviews for his stump speech–a rallying cry to heal an America cleaved by division–and his ability to transmit trustworthiness and empathy to voters. But while he’s proved he can stir people in intimate settings, now he’ll need to resonate with them in large crowds. His campaign team, which has seen him hone his skills on the hustings, isn’t worried. “Before, he would be reading from a speech,” says a senior adviser. Now, “his confidence and comfort level with the material is higher. He’s just at home on the stage.” Nor is Edwards worried about having to rely more heavily on ads than tactile campaigning. “I have a very clear message that’s easy to understand,” he says, “a message that can be conveyed effectively on television.” (The campaign is currently running ads in South Carolina, Oklahoma and New Mexico.)
Though Edwards has hewed rigorously to his campaign themes, expect him to tinker with them as the competitive landscape changes. “Our message has different components,” says a senior adviser, which could be given varying degrees of emphasis depending on how Edwards’s rivals are faring. If Dean remains strong and continues to trade barbs with Kerry, for instance, Edwards will continue to drive home that he’s the “positive” candidate. If Kerry emerges dominant, Edwards will emphasize his claimed outsider status. If Clark proves formidable in states both are strenuously fighting over–like South Carolina and Oklahoma–Edwards will stress his antilobbyist stance to highlight the scrutiny that Clark’s past lobbying activities have drawn.
But far beneath the loftier realms of message and momentum, there’s the nuts and bolts of organization. Edwards can count on a muscular operation in South Carolina, where recent polls show him leading Kerry by 4 to 6 points. The Edwards team has hired all four campaign managers for the Democratic gubernatorial candidates in 1994–the year of the last hotly contested primary in the state. A 400-strong volunteer corps has been canvassing, leafleting and phone-banking for months. And Edwards’s endorsements from more than 75 state and local officials can mobilize robust get-out-the-vote efforts. Though Edwards–like each of his Democratic rivals–is still awaiting word on a possible endorsement from South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, an influential black lawmaker, Edwards wasted no time in enlisting one of Clyburn’s top aides, Ike Williams, as well as Clyburn’s nephew.
In Oklahoma, where polls show Edwards trailing Clark, the campaign has also invested significant time and money. Edwards was planning to make his 13th trip to the state on Wednesday, with a stop at the rural town of Durant and a visit with the African-American community in Tulsa. A trip to a union hall in Oklahoma City was scheduled for Saturday. As in Iowa, Edwards has sought to leverage his mill-town roots to target rural Democrats. “They like that he’s from a small town” and that he built a successful career despite his humble upbringing, says state director Ward Curtin. “This is an electorate that has been through the Dust Bowl, oil busts … They kept their heads down and kept on working to make a better life for themselves.” A presidential candidate willing to drive out to their isolated towns–as Edwards did on a two-day bus tour last year-could earn a payoff at the polls.
Edwards will also travel to other battleground states this week. In New Mexico, where one recent poll shows him trailing badly, he was scheduled to attend a townhall meeting in Albuquerque on Saturday. He’s relying on his state chair, New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, to help rally Hispanics, who could comprise nearly half of primary voters. Then there’s Missouri, which came into play after Rep. Dick Gephardt exited the race. The Edwards campaign hired two former Gephardt advisers and sent two Iowa campaign staffers to cobble together a last-minute operation. Edwards was scheduled to campaign in Springfield and St. Louis on Wednesday.
Though he faces tough challenges in all of these states, Edwards seems primed for battle. On primary day in New Hampshire, he spent much of the day calling allies–or potential allies–in the Feb. 3 states and doing radio and TV interviews for local stations. “He’s all fired up,” says spokeswoman Jennifer Palmieri. “He gets to play on his turf now.” It’s time to prove how good his moves are.
